PREDICT

Preparing for domino effects in a crisis situation

PREDICT provides a comprehensive solution for dealing with cascading effects in multi-sectoral crisis situations covering aspects of critical infrastructures. The PREDICT solution will be composed of the following three pillars: methodologies, models and software tools. Their integrated use will increase the awareness and understanding of cascading effects by crisis response organisations, enhances their preparedness and improves their response capability to respond in case of cascading failures.

PREDICT project will start from a deep analysis of recent cases (over 8500 incidents worldwide), which will be accompanied with scenarios of potential crisis. Project partners will set up a generic approach (common framework) to prevent or mitigate cascading effects which will be applied in selected cases agreed with end-users.

As modelling each phenomenon separately in a specific environment is not effective, PREDICT project will propose cohesive and comprehensive models of dependencies, cascading effects and common mode failure which will include causal relations, multi-sectoral infrastructure elements and environment parameters, as well as the human factor aspects.

PREDICT will deliver software tools bundled in PREDICT Incident Evolution Tool, which will consist of two core components:

• Foresight and Prediction Tool
  for simulation of the evolution of cascading effect and impact on multi-sectoral dependencies

• Decision-Support Tool
  for determining the best course of action and to calculate the risk associated with them

The high-quality of the developed solutions will be assured by a consortium consisting of a number of experienced partners joining research, industrial (incl. SME), and end-users' approaches. End-users will be deeply involved in PREDICT at three levels: as partners of the consortium (there are three end-users in the consortium), members of the Advisory Board, and representatives from relevant organisations across Europe.